Betting on Grand Slam games is quite different from betting on other tennis tours for a number of reasons. First and foremost, Grand Slams are the most popular tennis competitions in the world, taking place across the season from mid-January till the beginning of September. As we are talking about the ultimate tennis tours, we are also talking about the most watched events of the year, the most attended games, and the most betted-on matches.
In fact, the four Grand Slams generate the biggest share of bets placed all year round according to according to Allbets.tv and given their strong appeal and popularity among punters, online betting platforms and sportsbooks, including existing and new bookmakers, are working hard to create as consistent, full, and holistic markets as possible to satisfy their customers’ preferences.
A second reason why Grand Slam betting is different from betting on any other tennis tour, including ATP tours, has to do with some distinguishing characteristics that they have compared to the rest of the events. The most significant characteristic of all – which is also relevant to betting of course – is the win rate of favorites, which is considerably high.
Betting on the favorites in Grand Slam matches has been cited by many analysts and betting experts, such as Stephen Olayanju, as the most effective strategy. That’s because of two reasons: first, the odds for the underdogs – and this is true for all sites, regardless if we are talking about Indonesian betting sites or worldwide online bookmakers- are usually higher than the actual probabilities of losing and second, the favorites get to win more often in Grand Slam matches than in other tour matches.
Let’s see the first reason. The odds for the underdogs are usually higher because of the favorite-longshot bias, which indicates the tendency to overvalue longshots and give them better chances than their realistic probabilities, while at the same time undervaluing favorites. Due to the favorite-longshot bias, the risks of losing when one bets on the favorites are considerably less than the stakes lost when betting on the underdog.
Now, let’s go to the second reason. Indeed, favorites have generally better chances of winning a game and that’s why they are called favorites after all! But in Grand Slam matches, favorites get to win more often than in matches in other tours according to statistical evidence. Although there have not yet been research studies to address the factors that increase the win rate of favorites in Slams, the whole thing is largely attributed to the Best of Five Sets factor that applies in these four events.
While every other tour has the Best of Three Sets rule, Grand Slam confrontations end up with the victory of the tennis player who gets to be the best in a total of five sets. Analysis of previous Grand Slam records has revealed that favorites improve their chances of winning when there are more sets to be played. So being able to go to as many as five sets, raises their probability of winning for each of the two players. For the favorites, which have already higher chances of winning, the probabilities actually get even higher.
Overall, betting on favorites in Grand Slam matches has proven to be a more consistent and effective approach for punters, especially in the long run. Backing outsiders often appears to be a very attractive option, particularly as some bettors see the opportunities for much bigger payouts and as such they develop a ‘love’ for the potential returns going along with greater risk.
But if you wanna stick more to the statistics and the probabilities of winning, then it is the favorites that get to close a match far more often than the underdogs do in the four majors. So, the next time you think of betting on the outsider of a tennis match in the Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon, or US Open, make sure that you have all the right information to give you an edge in that longshot!
